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Affected by factors such as the tropical storm approaching the Gulf of Mexico and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, international oil prices oscillated on August 29, and the New York market fell again to close at 115.46 U.S. dollars per barrel.
Since 2008, the international oil price has exceeded 100 US dollars, and has continued to rise, and reached the current round high of 147 US dollars at the beginning of July. Afterwards, the price of oil turned down and fell to a minimum of 113 US dollars, a decrease of 23.13%. The author believes that the recent drop in oil prices is mainly due to the large increase in the previous period, and the continued rise in the previous period hit the demand. However, in the long run, international oil prices have limited downside due to continued supply and demand tensions. The author believes that oil prices are likely to operate in the $100 to $120 range in the near future.
Lower oil prices benefiting the upper and lower reaches In a complete market economy, changes in oil prices are consistent across the entire petrochemical industry chain. The drop in crude oil prices will reduce the profitability of the upstream oil and gas exploration and development business, drive down the price of refined oil products, and reduce the profitability of refining and sales operations.
The current state of domestic policies makes changes in oil prices have different effects on the upstream and downstream of the entire petrochemical industry chain. When the price of oil stays above 120 US dollars, the special proceeds makes it impossible for the upstream exploration and development businesses of domestic petrochemical companies to fully enjoy the benefits brought by high oil prices, and the tightly regulated oil prices have caused huge losses in the downstream refining business. Therefore, the current falling oil price is a good factor for the domestic petrochemical industry, whether it is upstream or downstream. It can not only make enterprises pay less special income, but also reduce the loss of refining business.
When the crude oil price is at 140 US dollars, the domestic oilfield will pay a special benefit of 32 US dollars per barrel of crude oil; if the crude oil price drops to 100 US dollars, the special benefit will drop by 50%, and the domestic refinery with the best technical level Basically, you can achieve a break-even. The author believes that the probability of the international oil price dropping below $100 is relatively small. Therefore, 100 US dollars has still not entered the optimal profitability range of domestic petrochemical companies. The current round of oil price adjustment has limited overall interest in the petrochemical industry.
For chemical business, the drop in crude oil prices overall can reduce raw material costs for chemical companies. However, the drop in oil prices will also drive down the prices of chemical products, which will cause the economic prosperity of the chemical industry to decline. For example, the price of ethylene FOB in South Korea fell by 14.59% in the most recent month to US$1,405, while the price of propylene dropped by 14.83% to US$1,465. The price of ethylene-naphtha that can measure the petrochemical boom dropped sharply from 9,000 yuan per ton in June. To less than 500 yuan per ton. In addition, since 2009, large-scale petrochemical plants in the Middle East have been continuously put into production, and domestic chemical companies will face increasing competitive pressure.
Future policies may benefit the petrochemical sector The author believes that reform of refined oil prices should not be viewed in isolation, but should be viewed in the context of energy price reform. In recent years, China has achieved remarkable results in energy conservation and emission reduction. However, the energy consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP is still equivalent to twice that of the United States, four times that of the European Union, and eight times that of Japan. The task of energy conservation and emission reduction is urgent and arduous.
In response to the severe situation, the government has adopted a series of measures. On June 20, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of gasoline and diesel by 1,000 yuan per ton, and the price of aviation kerosene by 1,500 yuan per ton. On July 1, the government increased the national average price of electricity sold by 0.025 yuan per kilowatt-hour; on August 20, the government Increase the on-grid tariff of thermal power generation enterprises nationwide by an average of 0.02 yuan per kilowatt-hour; starting on September 1, the auto consumption tax adjustment policy will take effect in order to encourage the use of energy-efficient vehicles; on October 1, the “Civil Building Energy Conservation Regulations†and “Public Institutions The Energy Conservation Ordinance was formally implemented.
It can be seen from the above policy that the government has fully realized the necessity of energy price reform and started to take action. The gradual fall in CPI prices has provided good external opportunities for price reforms; the recent drop in crude oil prices has provided a rare opportunity to rationalize refined oil prices; at the same time, it has not affected major public activities in the short term. Therefore, I believe that the energy price reform after the Olympic Games will be further accelerated.
Domestic petrochemical industry still faces operating pressure
In the long term, there is limited space for international oil prices to fall due to tight supply and demand.